Friday, May 2, 2008


The business cycle have 4 phases as explained in the graph below.
PEAK->RECESSION->TROUGH->RECOVERY

We should be aware that the US economy is going for a recession considering 2 main issues:
1. The crude oil has successfully hit $100 a barrel as per 2 January 2008
2. The subprime mortgage crisis leading to sharp rise in Home Foreclosures

The question is how do we make money in this recessionary market? You might be interested to pay attention to Ben Shalom Bernanke of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the current fed funds rates(known as interest rates) as the stock market moves adversely with the interest rates ie, interest rates go down, stock market goes up=)

A simple definition of fed fund/interest rates-> the cost(interest to be paid) to borrow money from the bank ie, if the interest cost is low, companies tend to borrow from the bank to expand where the results is clearly reflected in the stock market.

A thorough research shown that the average recessionary period in the US economy will last for 10 months. Does it mean that we should halt ourselves from entering the US market for 10 months? The answer is definitely a no!

Why?

Let's take an example, say Coke. Is it everyone will stop buying Coke in the recessionary period. Not exactly right? Even McDonalds would have stop their operation without supply of Coke, am i right? You see, even though the economy is stagnant, some other stocks(normally people's needs industry) are not affected for example,

Biomedical Sciences & Healthcare
Chemicals
Clean Energy
Education Services
Electronics
Engineering & Environmental Services
Emerging Industries
Headquarters & Professional Services
Info communications & Media
Logistics
Precision Engineering
Transport Engineering

"When there's a will, there's always a way" Goodluck millionaires!



1 comments:

Edgar Ng

Doing a good job there!
keep posting.

That coffee up there is really tempting though :)

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